The Fourth Turning
By Bret Burquest
William Strauss and Neil Howe, in
their book titled The Fourth Turning,
theorize that society has a collective personality that changes on a regular
cyclical basis. This cycle repeats itself every four generations (every 80 to
100 years), with each generation having a distinct persona. When the collective
persona changes, every 20 years or so, it’s called a turning. The four turnings
comprise a repeatable cycle of social human growth.
The first turning is a high -- an optimistic
period of idealism with social order and weak individualism. People born in
this time frame are classified as Prophets. They challenge the moral failure of
previous generations.
The second turning is an awakening
-- a passionate era where social order comes under attack. Those born in this
generation are Nomads. They defend society and attempt to slow social change.
The third turning is an unraveling
-- a down period of strong individualism and weakening social order. This
generation is called Heroes. They tend toward pessimism, fueling a society-wide
crisis.
The fourth turning is a crisis --
a tumultuous period where the old social order is replaced by a new one. Those
born in this generation are Artists. They believe in cooperation and become
sensitive helpmates.
The repeatable cycles of social
change always start out on an optimistic high, followed by an awakening,
leading to an unraveling, culminating in a crisis. History is replete with this
four-generation cycle.
The American Revolution –
(1701-1791). It started as an optimistic age of enlightenment and culminated
with the American Revolutionary War.
The Civil War – (1791-1866). The
newly created nation was in an optimistic period full of promise. The cycle
climaxed with the bloody Civil War.
The Great Power – (1866-1946). The
era started with reconstruction after the Civil War with a positive outlook
toward the future and ended with World War II.
The Present Cycle
began in 1946, just after the end of the last world war. In the first turning,
society entered a period of building and fortification. There was great
optimism when soldiers returned home to start a fresh life and the economy
began to boom.
The second turning
is an awakening. According to Strauss and Howe, an awakening is when a society
takes a sudden turn in a new direction. In the mid-1960s, about 20 years after
the start of the Present Cycle, our social fabric was torn apart by our
involvement in
The third turning
in the Present Cycle took place in the mid-1980s, a period of unraveling when
social anxiety caused the old order to decay and new values to emerge. This was
an era of self-interest replacing societal interests. After decades of liberal
rule by Democrats, with their big government social programs, the more
conservative ideals of Ronald Reagan and George Bush, Sr. became the social
order of the day. Individuals began to become more materialistic and less
caring about others. It was dubbed the “Me Generation.”
The fourth turning
is a period of crisis. It often starts with an event that triggers an upheaval
in public life. We are now in the early stages of the fourth turning of this
cycle. It probably started on
As a society, we
appear to be trapped in an endless cycle of inevitable highs and lows.
Apparently, history repeats itself in some sort of bizarre 80-year mood swing,
pitting each generation against one another.
As individuals, all
we can do is treat others the way we want to be treated and go along for the
ride.
Like it or not,
we’re all in this together.
* * *
Bret Burquest is an award-winning columns and author of four
novels. Contact bret@centurytel.net
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